Around this time a year ago, about 85% of economists and market analysts (including me) expected the US and global economy would suffer a recession. Falling but still-sticky inflation suggested that monetary policy would grow tighter before rapidly easing once the recession hit, stock markets would fall and bond yields would remain high.

Instead, the opposite mostly happened. Inflation fell more than expected, a recession was avoided, stock markets rose, and bond yields fell after going higher.

One therefore must approach any 2024 forecast with humility. Still, the basic ta...