Investors spend too much time trying to predict the future, using history as their guide. Instead, they should focus on what is actually happening in the world, and think differently about portfolio construction. Much of current economic and markets thinking is rooted in the post-Global Financial Crisis era. Practitioners need to let go of that history and instead embrace the fact that four trends – weak population growth, deglobalisation, the end of “free money”, and the decoupling of asset prices from economies – are fundamentally changing the long-term outlook...