In the wake of the most rapid and material rise in global interest rates for 50 years, we could be forgiven for scratching our heads, for being completely puzzled, at what has happened over 2023.

Economies and labour markets were remarkably resilient. So were asset prices. At the time of writing, most equity markets were up by a few percentage points, while the major US indices had posted strong double-digit gains, largely due the contribution of the so-called “Magnificent Seven”. Credit markets were remarkably calm. While the collapse of a few small US banks produced a 50-basis po...